Change in competitive rank when trans athletes switch sex categories: a Japanese perspective

A recent survey by Aya Sadamasu, et al entitled Transgender athletes and the sex category: change in competition level was greeted with a great big, No duh. Unfortunately, legitimate scientists are being forced to spend their time defending basic biology and blindingly obvious facts from absurd claims that men have no advantage over women in sports, and gender identity trumps sex in sports performance, so that’s what you get—a paper that confirms what we all knew. But not so fast, hamburger.

Yes, Sadamasu’s survey quantified phenomena we all knew—that trans-identified men frequently switched to the female category and enjoyed a competitive boost by doing so—but also offered a surprising perspective on “transmen,” a group that is rarely mentioned except as a way for trans activists to prove that inclusion is not unfair. I emailed with Sadamasu, who is Japanese, and received a much needed reminder that my Western media-informed view of trans athletes in sports ignores (largely because of language barriers) half of the planet. In fact, the only reason I know anything about this survey is because it was translated into English and published in the European Journal for Sport and Society. Even aside from the published findings of the paper, follow-up emails with Sadamasu, the primary investigator, revealed that trans athletes in sports is a very different story in Japan from what it is here in the Western world (I am always tempted to say Yeehaw!)

The survey looked at the number of trans athletes who changed competition sex categories after transition (I will use ideological language—transition, transwoman, transman—because the paper did, probably as a condition of being published), and whether those athletes who changed sex categories increased or decreased their level of competitiveness. So, for example, if a “transwoman” switched to the female category post-transition, did the athlete rank higher among females than he had pre-transition among males, stay the same, or decrease competitive level? The international group of four researchers used 2,220 English-language articles published between January 1, 2016 and August 31, 2021 that yielded results from 52 “transwomen” and 16 “transmen.” Labeling competition levels as regional, national, or international, the researchers recorded whether athletes increased competition level by changing sex category (e.g. moved from national level to international level), stayed the same, or decreased competition level (e.g., moved from national to regional).

“This research focuses on only one aspect of this complex issue, i.e. the value of fairness in the discussion of the inclusion of trans people into sport,” the authors wrote.

Of the 52 “transwomen”, 94% switched to the women’s category, and 6% remained in the men’s category. Of the 94% who switched to the female category, 41% enjoyed an increase in competition level, 59% stayed at the same level, and none decreased their level of competition.

Of the 16 “transmen”, 69% switched to the male category, and 31% remained in the female category after transition. Of those “transmen” who switched to the male category, 82% remained the same in terms of competition level, while 18% decreased their competitiveness. None of the “transmen” who switched to the male category increased their competitive ranking.

Clearly, the vast majority of “transwomen” switch to the female category post-transition, and nearly half increased their level of competition by doing so. The authors’ discussion included this:

“Specifically, in cases where transwomen athletes changed from regional or national male level to international female level (N = 3, N = 5, respectively), such a rise in competition level can have significant effects in terms of earnings and social status, since a higher level of competition in some sports might bring greater visibility and possibly also fame (Emrich et al., Citation2009; Sullivan, Citation2011).

It’s notable that the 6% of “transwomen” who remained in the male category post-transition were already competing at the international level, so would have had little incentive in terms of income or social status to switch to the female category. As international level athletes in male sports, they probably earned more and had higher social status than their female counterparts.

This survey confirmed sports are a man’s world regardless of how he identifies. The vast majority of “transwomen” choose to switch to the female category because it’s loaded with upside—their gender identity is validated, almost all sports at every level provide a legal pathway for doing so ranging from simple self-ID to some level of testosterone reduction (which is often still in the male range), and their competitive rank will either stay the same or increase. Have cake, eat it too. The only downside is that their participation may draw criticism about unfairness and hateful comments about males in women’s sports, but mainstream media, vocal allies, and sadly, sports organizations have faithfully defended “transwomen” in women’s sports as a human rights issue. The possibility that “transwomen” could remain in the male category and thus avoid any possibility of unfairness to women or breaching of women’s spaces never entered the discussion in media coverage or policymaking. Raging entitlement is, in fact, the most telling characteristic that a “transwoman” is male.

Here’s a line from a very sympathetic story from Sports Illustrated: “Emily, who has never considered herself a boy, does not want to try out for basketball on the boys team, like her principal has suggested.” Emily, a seventh grader who played for three years on the boys’ team, just doesn’t want to remain on the boys’ team. Could, of course. Just doesn’t want to. No consideration of how this will affect girls. “Because he wants to” is apparently a completely valid reason to invade girls’ spaces and rights. One of the most infamous “transwomen,” Lia Thomas, spent many, many words and column inches telling Sports Illustrated why he “had to” swim on the women’s team. According to Thomas, he wanted to show trans kids that they didn’t have to compromise “who they were” for “doing the sport they love.” They could do it all, both, and as it turned out, go from mediocre to national champion. At least if you were male. “I’m a woman,” he declared with the kind of confidence born of 18 years of male privilege. (I’ve never heard a trans-identified woman say, “I’m a man”) The whole interview was a manifesto of male entitlement.

The survey’s findings, that a mega majority of “transwomen” switch to the female category and enjoy a boost in competitive level by doing so, illustrates male advantage and the unfairness that results from “inclusion.” Not surprising. Things got more interesting when looking at the results for “transmen,” a population that’s usually an afterthought in the Western world.

I was surprised the researchers found as many “transmen” as they did (69%) who switched to the male category post-transition, given that they did so with a physical disadvantage and possible safety concerns. I was also surprised that 82% of that cohort retained their same level of competitiveness in the male category. Of the “transmen” I’m aware of who competed in the male category—Chris Mosier, and collegiate swimmers Schuyler Bailar and Iszac Henig—all of them experienced a decline in competitive level after switching to the male category, despite all using testosterone. And that brings up an important point.

Since the researchers used newspaper articles rather than directly surveying the athletes, and focused strictly on change in level of competition, nothing about hormone reduction/supplementation was known. Most sports ban the use of testosterone by females, regardless of how they identify, in the female category (Olympian Nikki Hiltz has commented that she can’t wait for her track career to be over so she can start taking testosterone), but allow “transmen” competing in the male category to use testosterone.

In my world, “trans inclusion” is assumed to mean male inclusion in women’s sports. But “transmen” are rarely mentioned. That is, until I got a little Eastern perspective from Aya Sadamasu.

“My impression was that in my country and other conservative countries such as Japan, there are more transmen than transwomen but they are less likely to change their gender category [than transwomen]. So we aimed to show evidence of this tendency.”

I asked Sadamasu: Given that “transmen” were able to compete without unfairness or controversy by remaining in their sex category, why did she think transwomen so rarely remained in their sex category, causing unfairness and controversy?

She answered: There may be a difference of opinion among our co-authors. I live in Japan, where there are more transmen as the past scientific paper showed. However, IOC, each International Federation [IF] and other regulations regarding transgender people are focused on transwomen. IFs and IOCs are often run by people from western countries, where transwomen are more common compared to transman. So, their background is reflected in the transgender policy, which leads to focus on transwoman.

Therefore, IFs or IOC are not actively establishing provisions regarding transmen. Thus, in Japan, this has caused confusion, and the Japan Football Association, with which I am involved, is considering its own regulations focusing on transmen. In fact, there are cases, at least in Japan, where transmen stay in the women’s category while using testosterone. So, the point about ‘without controversy’ is not correct.

From my perspective living in East Asia, I can say that the transgender debate is mainly discussed by people in Western countries, and it is mainly about transwomen, which only reflects the cultural and medical background of Western countries.

Of course, it is possible that it is easier for transwomen to participate in the women’s category to raise their level of competition and gain socioeconomic benefits. However, we need to remember that at least there is a system in place for transwomen to change sex categories compared to for transman.

Also, this is an English paper this time, and it is difficult to reflect non-English speaking cultures where transman is common perhaps. We cannot rule out the possibility that there may be actually more transmen and that they are changing sex categories. That is a limitation of this paper.

I had no idea there were more “transmen” than “transwomen” in Japan, as that ratio is flipped in the U.S., according to UCLA’s Williams Institute. Sadamasu credited Japan’s conservative culture with greater numbers of “transmen,” and explained it by saying:

“Other conservative countries surveyed are Iran and Bhutan, which share the same trend as Japan. Genetic and social factors have been pointed out as the reasons. Genes have not been identified and are only possibilities. In conservative countries, there is a patriarchal system and gender roles for men are more strict, making it more difficult for men to deviate from masculinity. So, if they are trasnwoman, they cannot disclose their gender identity depending on their environment. Some super conservative countries do not recognize the existence of LGBTQ+ in the first place, such as Islamic countries. In some cases the death penalty is imposed, and population studies are still limited. It can be dangerous to do research or to participate in research, so there might be many things we don't know yet.”

Sadamasu mentioned that international federations had not established rules about testosterone use regarding “transmen,” and I again revealed my ignorance by saying What about WADA? What about FIFA? As I soon discovered, FIFA is still reviewing it’s trans inclusion policy, but, as it stands, athletes must play in their sex category, and use of testosterone is not allowed for any athlete. Again, Sadamasu explained the realities in Japan:

“WADA is not responsible for the transgender eligibility criteria for each sport. It means that who judges [whether] transman with testosterone should be banned or not is not WADA, but International or National Federations. So, in football, FIFA or AFC (Asian Federation) don't have any eligibility criteria now. So, we are trying to have it.

“For actual transman with testosterone,  a real ‘elite’ player doesn't use it. For instance, Kumi Yokoyama was a former national player of Japan, belonging to the US woman league, and praised by Joe Biden in the past when he disclosed his gender identity. He is still playing in the women's team in Japan. He openly said that he undertook breast surgery, but for hormone treatment, he will start it after retiring. We think that transman with hormone treatment are from between elite level and grassroots/amateur level, where the number of doping tests is small, public/media attention is small, but not leisure level.”

According to a 2021 NBC story that reported Yokoyama’s transition, support for trans people in Japan is lacking, they often suffer discrimination, and only in 2023 were allowed to change the sex marker on official documents without mandatory sterilization surgery.

Here’s more East-West nitty gritty I did not know that influences the Wild West situation in which Japan Football Association finds itself:

“We are of course aware of the participation rules for transmen, IOC, NCAA, Football Assoiation in England, and not a few others. However, testosterone treatment is different in the West from Japan (mainly tapes [patches] in the West, only injections in Japan), so the participation rules of the English FA, for example, cannot be used as they are in our country. To give a detailed example, the testosterone level of an injectable drug immediately after the injection exceeds that of the average male by a large margin. Whether this is allowed or not as a rule is not discussed in the world, and there is not much precedent for this. At least for those of us who actually have many transman athletes who have injections, the NFs and IFs of other countries and the past IOC rules (2015) are too vague in their provisions to be implemented as is. Therefore, since neither FIFA nor AFC have participation rules, Japan football has no choice but to make its own rules if necessary.”

Finally, Sadamasu laid out how the findings in the survey could be used as a reference when sports federations make their trans inclusion policies.

If it is true that, as this study found, the level of competition is raised for some transwoman athletes (41%) simply by a change of their sex sub-category, it is critical to determine clear and fair rules for female participation whilst also considering the possibilities of inclusion, fairness of competition and safety of athletes. Individual sports should develop their own guidelines for the inclusion of transgender athletes depending on the characteristics of the competition (if they want to retain the sex category), or dispose of the sex category altogether and encourage a unisex version of their sport, that is a sport or discipline without the need for the sex category, such as curling or some disciplines in shooting, which might be most inclusive with respect to sex.”

One solution to fairness and inclusion I would propose is that “transwomen” should be considered a subset of men, and therefore welcomed in the male category. This will require effort that has heretofore been a bridge too far in three areas—sports federations need to protect the female category as World Athletics, World Aquatics, World Rugby, and International Cycling have done; men’s sports need to be tasked with inclusion as vigorously as women’s sports have been; and all sports organizations need to find the backbone to say no to men who feel entitled to compete in the female category.

The survey provided a lot more nuance in the discussion of “transmen” than I’ve ever seen. If the results are accurate, a blanket requirement for all trans athletes to compete in their sex category does a disservice to the surprisingly large percent of “transmen” who switch to the male category, without creating unfairness for men, and for many, without a loss of competitiveness. Of course, those who remain in the female category must forego testosterone, as most sports organizations now dictate. Except, for the time being, the Japan Football Association.